Tight three-way race in brand new federal riding

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Suzanne Gammon

Tribune

Voters are getting ready to head to the polls once again in another snap election just weeks after Ontario’s early contest, as new Liberal leader and Prime Minister Mark Carney has opted to get a mandate from all Canadians before recalling Parliament, putting his brand new job on the line. Carney announced the election call on Sunday, March 22 and the campaign would last just five weeks, with election day coming fast, April 28.

West Nipissing will be voting in the brand new riding of Sudbury East-Manitoulin-Nickel Belt, which covers 32,305 square kilometers with a population of 99,827 residents. In 2023, the riding boundaries were redrawn, eliminating the riding of Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, which was split up and swallowed by three neighouring ridings. The former riding of Nickel Belt therefore added Massey, Webbwood, Nairn Centre, Espanola, Manitoulin Island, Naughton and Whitefish, and gave up parts of Greater Sudbury including Falconbridge, Garson, Coniston, Wahnapitae and much of the south end of Sudbury. Still included are West Nipissing and Sudbury East.

The old riding of Nickel Belt has flip-flopped between the Liberals and NDP for the last several decades, with incumbent Marc Serré of the Liberals taking it from former NDP MP Claude Gravelle in 2015 and holding the riding since that time. The new part of the riding used to be represented by the NDP’s Carol Hughes, who is not running again. This might suggest a ferocious contest between these two parties in the current election, however the Conservatives did gain ground in Nickel Belt in 2021, with their candidate Charles Humphrey taking second place to Serré with 27.2% of the vote, after Conservative Aino Laamanen finished third in the two previous elections, ending with 21% in 2019 and just 16.74% in 2015.

Andréane Chénier was a close third in 2021, with 26.6% of the vote, and she is back this year to try to reclaim the riding for the NDP. Meanwhile, a new Conservative candidate, Jim Bélanger of Azilda, is hoping to build on the gains of 2021 to turn the riding blue for the first time ever. They are both battling Serré, who took 34.9% of the vote in 2021 – a declining percentage after gaining 42.8% in 2015 and 38.99% in 2019.

Rounding out results for 2021 were the People’s Party of Canada’s (PPC) David Hobbs with 9.1% of the vote, and the Green Party’s Craig Gravelle with 1.7%, though neither of these two parties have candidates confirmed with Elections Canada thus far for 2025. The nomination period closes April 7th and they are expected to register candidates before that time. The Green Party’s website shows Himal Hossain of Azilda as the riding’s hopeful, while the PPC lists Claude Rozon as their candidate after Hobbs had been initially listed, though there are no details on where Rozon resides.

So far, it’s a nail-biting three-way race in Sudbury East-Manitoulin-Nickel Belt, and the candidates are all hot on the campaign trail making their case.

Marc Serré

Serré was facing a particularly hard battle until recently, as the Liberals under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau were polling abysmally and the party was in chaos even internally. Several prominent MPs announced they would not be seeking reelection, and since then some have reconsidered, but Serré decided early on to stick it out come what may. Fortunately for him, a change in leadership and a more centrist approach, especially in a time of uncertainty as Canada faces threats from US President Donald Trump, has given the Liberals new life and drastically improved their chances of success.

Serré recognizes that Carney brings a welcome reset and he is more comfortable with the more centrist approach, but says his decision to run has to do with “people who encouraged me” and wanting to continue the work he’s started. “There is still work to do,” says Serré, adding that he pays little attention to the political wranglings in Ottawa and prefers to focus on local matters that affect people in the riding directly. Residing in Verner, he says he’s a Northern boy at heart. “I’m still young, I still have the energy, and this election is one of the most important we’ve ever had,” he states.

He acknowledges the job isn’t easy, especially in a divided and sometimes toxic political climate, where “the federal government gets blamed for every problem in Canada.” He blames misinformation and the Conservatives, whom he says “have been very good at spreading hateful propaganda.” Serré also points to online fake news coming from China, Russia and India to influence Canadian electors, saying that people have to be hyper vigilant and “be leery of information found on social media.” Still, he says he is seeing a shift as Canadians unite and get more vocal in defending Liberal values, saying “the dynamic has really changed. (…) People are speaking up now. I see it at the doors and on social media, there is more pushback” against misinformation.

Still, it won’t be any easier if he wins, as he will take on a much vaster riding with a dozen municipalities and 7 new first nations, all with differing priorities. Serré fought against redrawing the riding boundaries as it took away one MP from Northern Ontario, which he feels needs more representation. He points to the fact that Francophones now represent a smaller percentage of the riding population, and that the vast territory will make it challenging to get to everyone frequently. “People want to see their MP,” he says, adding that fortunately, his ten years of experience have allowed him to forge many connections already. Currently, Serré has offices in Val Caron and Sturgeon Falls, and says he would like to add a third so that constituents don’t have to travel too far to get to his staff. However, he points out that this will depend on his MP budget, which will likely get just a $24K boost to serve the much bigger area.

Serré says the top concern he is hearing from local voters are tariffs and threats from Donald Trump. “I hear this constantly” on the campaign trail, he says, adding that “people want solutions, not slogans.” He feels Carney is uniquely qualified to deal with the volatile situation, as he has managed crises like the 2008 financial meltdown in North America and Brexit in Britain, where he was Governor of their central bank after serving as Governor of the Bank of Canada.

The second priority he’s consistently hearing is “the cost of living, groceries, rent, homes…,” which has skyrocketed and needs to be tackled, Serré says. He points to the Liberal government increasing child tax benefits, funding $10 per day daycare spaces, and introducing dental care as ways they have improved affordability, but admits much more needs to be done. Serré says he agrees with Carney’s decision to eliminate the consumer carbon tax and his plan to cut taxes for the middle class, invest massively in building more homes and continue expanding dental care. He also fears that under a Conservative government, some of the programs mentioned will be cut, though Conservative leader Pierre Poilièvre has stated he will not cut the daycare and dental care plans already in place.

Serré says he’s heard others express the same fears around Poilièvre. “Yes, people want fiscal responsibility, but they also want leaders with a social conscience and people fear that Pierre Poilièvre is a populist like Trump,” he says. “I’ve had people tell me “I’ve voted NDP all my life but Mark Carney is the only person who can defend us from Trump. (…) People are afraid of Poilièvre.”

Serré says he has never encouraged strategic voting in the past, but he senses people are coalescing now to avoid a Conservative win. However, he says the most important thing is that people get out and vote, no matter who they support, pointing to a 45% turnout during the recent provincial election. “Democracy is important,” he insists, reminding people that they can even go vote before election day at their Elections Canada office.

Jim Bélanger

Bélanger is a first-time candidate but not entirely new to the political arena. In 2015, he sought the Liberal nomination for the Nickel Belt riding and lost to Serré. Evidently disillusioned with the Liberals since that time, he switched allegiance and believes the riding would be better served under the Conservatives. A lifelong resident of Azilda, Bélanger is an entrepreneur who has worked in the mining, logging and agriculture sectors, and is currently self-employed in the fuel sector, according to his provided biography.

Bélanger has been knocking on doors and says “what I’m hearing on the doorstep in Sudbury East-Manitoulin-Nickel Belt is clear: affordability, jobs, and infrastructure.”

Bélanger rues that gas, groceries and housing have all gotten more expensive “after ten years of the Liberals” and pledges that “Conservatives will axe the carbon tax, lower taxes, and bring common sense to government spending.”

On the jobs front, he says “red tape and high taxes are driving investment away” from Northern Ontario, which is highly dependent on resource-based industries like forestry and mining. “I will fight to get projects approved faster (…) and make sure we get our fair share of infrastructure funding to support our industries,” Bélanger says. On the topic of infrastructure, he acknowledges that Northern communities are spread out, making access a challenge. “We need to make sure our towns and rural communities aren’t left behind when it comes to roads, broadband and public services.”

Bélanger also recognizes the challenges of serving such a vast riding, but assures he is undaunted. “I plan to be present in every corner of this riding, whether it’s in-person, mobile constituency offices, or just picking up the phone when people call. As for a constituency office, I’ll make sure we have a location that’s accessible,” he promises.

Bélanger has a much different take on the Liberal leadership change and how that might affect the election, despite polls showing Poilièvre’s once-sizeable lead has slipped. “Not much has changed on the ground. People are fed up with the same old Liberal policies that have made life unaffordable. A new face at the top doesn’t change the fact that after ten years, everything is broken,” he insists. And though the riding “has been red or orange for decades, […] people are realizing it’s time for a new approach,” suggests Bélanger.

Asked how he would feel if he were the first person ever to turn the riding blue, he says that would be nice but he is more focused on residents’ priorities than on his own political success. “If elected, I’d be proud to make history, but more importantly, I’d be proud to bring real results to the people here,” concludes the Conservative candidate.

Andréane Chénier

The resident of Hanmer works as a Health and Safety Specialist for CUPE and jokes that she is running in the vast riding of Sudbury East-Manitoulin-Nickel Belt “for work-life balance” since the territory she covers for her job is even larger. All kidding aside, however, she is not pleased that a riding was cut and that the new riding is “a mishmash” of different types of communities that will be harder to represent. “They did the North a disservice,” she rues, pointing out that there is no public transit and long distances between communities, unlike urban ridings where access is much easier. She says she would have fought harder against this change, saying she “questions the persistence” of Serré and other MPs who fought not to lose a Northern riding.

Still, she says she is ready to take on the challenge. In order to ensure accessibility, she would like to see three constituency offices, but adds this would “depend on the budget.” Chénier sees at least two offices operating and “ideally,” a third. “To be fair, we’d have to have one in Sturgeon Falls [as the area has] a large pocket of population. (…) For sure there would be one in the Valley,” she states. However, to serve the newer parts of the riding, she would like to have a third office “most likely around Espanola”, though it may need to be part time based on funding.

When asked about voters’ priorities, she says she’s been hearing mainly “the very real fear of Trump” as workers worry about their job security and how they will support their family. “People say “I feel uncertain about the future’,” she relays, adding that the NDP has always pushed for supports for families and workers, whether it be through the pandemic with the CERB or by pushing the government to adopt dental care and cover diabetes medication. She says they will continue to fight for worker protections as tariffs impact industries and jobs. “This is not the fault of every day Northern workers” and they should not have to pay the price, she insists.

Chénier says she is also getting feedback on the NDP’s push for dental care, recognizing that proper dental care prevents heart disease and other sickness and thus saves money in the health system in the long run. She adds that it also boosts productivity. “Healthy people are people who can work,” she points out. She says she’s proud that the NDP is the party of universal healthcare, a hallmark of Canadian identity. “All across party lines, people are incredibly proud of our medicare,” boasts Chénier.

The candidate says across the riding, she is meeting a lot of seniors on a fixed income who talk about CPP benefits not keeping up with inflation, and now tariffs further exacerbating the affordability crisis. She says the issues are “keeping people up at night”, particularly the most vulnerable. According to Chénier, the NDP is advocating for regulations to end price gouging on essential grocery items, removing the GST on home heating, diapers and other essentials, and investments in affordable housing. She is also a proponent of a universal basic income, which would provide all Canadians with at least the minimum required for “a dignified way of living.”

When asked about the possibility of losing votes to the Liberals due to strategic voting, Chénier says this is nothing new for the NDP. According to her, strategic voting has always been “a Liberal cry to attract NDP voters to them” by using “scare tactics”, this time exploiting fear of a Conservative win. “The NDP, we always push through,” she insists. She also rejects the politics of fear and division, saying that she is “in it to offer a hopeful alternative. (…) Don’t vote with fear. There is a way forward.”

Voting

Local voters don’t have to wait until April 28 to cast their ballot. In fact, the local Elections Canada office in Sturgeon Falls (12006 Hwy 17 East, Suite 7) is open 7 days a week and people can vote there in person until April 22. People can vote by mail if they apply by April 22 with Elections Canada. Advance polls will be open April 18 to 21, with the address to attend indicated on people’s voter information card. Those who do not receive their card by mail by April 11 should contact Elections Canada.

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