New riding turns blue after decades of Liberal-NDP reign

Jim Bélanger unseats Marc Serré after ten-year run

Suzanne Gammon

Tribune

For voters in West Nipissing, this Monday’s federal election was a mixed bag. Liberal voters celebrated a win at the national level for new leader Mark Carney, but decried the loss of long-time Liberal MP Marc Serré, whose fourth run ended in defeat after representing the area since 2015. Conservative voters were thrilled by the historically significant victory of Jim Bélanger, the first to turn the former riding of Nickel Belt (now part of the brand new riding of Sudbury East-Matinoulin-Nickel Belt) blue, but were bitterly disappointed in the loss of their leader Pierre Poilièvre on the national stage and even in his own riding of Carleton, Ontario.

As television networks were quick to call a Liberal minority government after results from Eastern Canada began rolling in, Ontario results began trickling in just around 9:30 pm, with early numbers showing Conservative Jim Belanger leading. The lead over incumbent Serré widened further and further as the evening progressed, with stations making the call around 11:20 pm that Belanger won the riding. Still hoping for a turnaround from yet-to-be-counted advance ballots, Serré held off on admitting defeat, but eventually conceded in front of his supporters and campaign staff in Val Caron around 11:45 pm. In the end, Bélanger came out over 5,000 votes ahead, with 29,129 (48.3%) to Serré’s 24,122 votes (40%).

Serré concedes

Serré began the evening cautiously confident, and the mood at his event was one of nervous optimism. Supporters cheered the early call for the party, but chilled somewhat as a minority government was projected. Things turned more sombre as the riding results began coming up, and Serré’s seat went from a nearly sure thing to jeopardy to vanishing altogether. The former MP put on a brave face for those in the room, telling them he was proud of the campaign they ran and the work accomplished, and said they should “keep our heads up high and our elbows up.”

Serré, who won three previous mandates, said “there are always winners and losers” in an election, and he had no regrets. “I’ve worked hard for the riding, and my staff has worked very, very hard,” he stated, with the crowd applauding both. “We have to continue to fight hard for the riding and the country” he added, calling Canada “the best country in the world.”

Serré acknowledged that he had an uphill battle in the campaign, saying the riding redistribution was “a difficult element.” He cited the loss of “all of Nickel Centre”, an area where he formerly counted on about 4,200 Liberal votes and “won handily before.” The former MP also recognized that “Northern Ontario was hit hard” by the affordability crisis, with the cost of living and housing rising rapidly. Despite many voters punishing the Liberals for these financial woes, Serré said he was proud of his record working on local priorities, particularly for seniors, Internet access, childcare and family benefits. “In rural areas, people [feel] disconnected from government, (…) but here in the riding, people felt like it can make a difference,” he said.

Pointing out that the Liberals seemed to be heading to a minority government, Serré predicted there could be another election in the not-too-distant future, and didn’t rule out another run. “I will be reflecting with family on what the next steps will be,” he said, adding “I’m 58, I’m still young.” But first, “I think I’m going to rest for a while” he laughed through the emotion, admitting that the campaign was taxing.

In a statement the day following the election, Serré announced his constituency offices would be closed immediately. Staff at the watch party confirmed that they were now out of a job. Serré congratulated Jim Bélanger on his win and urged constituents to “make sure the MP is accountable.”

Bélanger ready to roll up his sleeves

Jim Bélanger says ‘accountable’ is exactly what he intends to be, as he spoke to the Tribune the morning after the election. “The important thing for me is to work with all the people (…), whether they voted for me or not, and bring their voice to Ottawa.”

The lifelong Azilda resident admitted he was surprised by his win, as polls had showed him trailing Serré. However, his instinct had him questioning the polls, since “the support at the doors was over 50 to 60%, just from people I talked to (…) but I thought maybe I just got lucky” knocking on the right doors.

On election night, his intuition proved right, and he admitted he first felt “a bit overwhelmed” with the task ahead. Still, he said he is ready and “looking forward to it,” as he focuses on the economy, the cost of living and housing and “trying to make our country better,” adding these are the priorities he heard from people all across the riding.

Bélanger addressed some of the criticism he faced. “I got a lot of flack for not attending debates,” he acknowledged, but added the debates were “not that well attended” and he felt he could “reach much more people knocking on doors.” He also held meet-and-greet events, including one in Sturgeon Falls April 9 with around 80 attendees. “I think it was the winning strategy,” he concluded.

As for what’s next, Bélanger readily admitted “I’m a rookie” and “waiting to hear from the party” to plan his first moves. One thing on the agenda is how he will serve the vast riding, as he considers where to open and staff a campaign office – or offices. Asked if he’s planning to have an office in West Nipissing, he said it’s still too early to decide, as he has to find out his operating budget and consider the new riding boundaries. “I know Marc Serré had offices in Val Caron, Sturgeon Falls and Ottawa. Now the boundaries are larger. We’re giving that some thought,” he stated, adding that he will find ways to be accessible.

Bélanger, who is bilingual and self-employed in the resource sector, said “what I like about Sturgeon, I have a bit of a background in agriculture, and that’s one area I want to focus on.” He is also proud to be the first Conservative MP to serve the riding, drawing a parallel to his grandmother Azilda Bélanger, who was “the first pioneer lady” in the town of Azilda, which was actually named after her.

Asked about his party’s national results, and the fate of his leader Pierre Poilièvre, Bélanger focused on the positives. “I like Mr. Poilièvre a lot,” he stated, adding the leader “came down twice [to this riding] and showed how much he cared for the North.” He said the visits no doubt gave his own campaign a boost, and he is grateful. The party also increased its seat count, most notably in Ontario.

Bélanger also stressed that “many of Pierre’s policies were copied by Mark Carney”, from axing the carbon tax to reducing income tax to championing pipelines. “We’ll try to make sure Mr. Carney implements all those policies he borrowed from the Conservatives,” he stated.

“We need to get our energy out of the ground,” insisted Bélanger, adding that this can also be good for the environment as selling natural gas to China and other polluting nations “can get them off their coal” dependency.

Bélanger also wants to work toward a balanced budget, stressing that this is not necessarily inconsistent with social spending. “I believe in social programs, I just believe that we have to have the money to pay for them,” he declared.

The new MP said he’s going to Ottawa with an open mind and a willingness to collaborate, vowing that he will seize “opportunities to work together” whether with the Liberals, the NDP or the Conservatives, as “what’s best for the people (…) is always what I have in mind.”

As for the divisiveness of recent political discourse, which has fed into acrimony even among voters, Bélanger called it “unfortunate” and added “I don’t believe in that.” He feels the moment calls for calm and unity. “Everybody’s got different views,” and that’s fine, he commented, but “we have to find ways to unite as a country.” He thinks building a pipeline and facilitating interprovincial trade would be a good start to promote cooperation and goodwill between all parts of Canada. “Mr. Trump has been a very good wake-up call,” he said, hopeful that Canadians and politicians of all stripes will stand together to defend the country’s interests.

On the cooperation front, Bélanger added that he intends to call Marc Serré and congratulate him on a good campaign, and he’s open to further talks to learn about outstanding files that need attention. “It would be very interesting to see what is ongoing” to avoid “things falling through the cracks,” he stated. The new MP feels there “should be a continuation” of pending work.

In the end, Bélanger said while there “is still a lot for me to learn”, he is committed and “will always work hard and with integrity.”

Chénier not giving up

The New Democratic Party, while traditionally strong in all parts of the new riding, fell drastically to just 4,818 votes (8%). Candidate Andréane Chénier, in her second federal bid, had a small and subdued watch night in Val Caron, just down the road from Serré’s event, with about ten people taking in the NDP’s fall to just 7 seats in Parliament, which has left them without official party status. That very evening, in his concession speech, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, who lost his own riding in Burnaby, B.C., announced he was stepping down. The results seemed bleak for the NDP, until the next morning when the Liberal seat count began creeping up to just under the required 172 to form a majority, meaning the NDP’s 7 elected MPs could hold the balance of power in Ottawa once more.

While Chénier’s vote count was down significantly from her 26.6% in 2021, she was buoyed by the fact that she had a higher average than the NDP’s national result of 6.3% support. She pointed out that many traditional NDP voters strayed from the party out of fear, though it appears that some went to the Conservatives rather than the Liberals as predicted. In Ontario, the NDP presence was wiped out entirely as the province was painted red and blue only.

“People vote for the party, it’s the popularity of the party,” she opined, feeling that Sudbury East-Manitoulin-Nickel Belt voters were swayed by the party leaders more than their local candidates. She pointed out that Bélanger didn’t attend any debates, suggesting he was not the convincing factor. She also blamed misinformation for turning voters away from her party, giving the example of memes suggesting the NDP would take hunters’ guns away, when in fact “we used our influence (…) to get hunting rifles excluded” from firearms legislation. Chénier said social media is the main culprit in spreading misinformation, as people believe half truths promulgated online. She pointed to people saying Poilièvre would cut their taxes in half, when in fact the Conservative plan called for a phased in tax cut that would bring them “relief in 2029 only,” she deplored.

According to Chénier, the NDP loss was a reflection of the current tariff threats and not the result of the party’s actual policies, which she argued are popular based on what people were telling her on the campaign trail. “At the door, people always say we need more,” she said, pointing to pharmacare, dental care and other services brought in due to NDP pressure. “That more is delivered by the NDP, not the other parties.”

She is confident the party can continue to deliver, even with just 7 seats. “Last time, we did a lot with very little,” she pointed out, adding she was encouraged to see the NDP may still hold the balance of power under a Carney minority. Of course, that starts with a new leader, and Chénier said there are people in the party ready to step up, though she would not name any person she had in mind as a successor to Singh. She noted a leadership contest will have to be held soon, and she will continue to be involved as the head of the Sudbury East-Manitoulin-Nickel Belt NDP riding association.

Indeed, the candidate is already planning a third run herself. “The reasons I ran have not changed,” she noted, saying that when public services are not adequately funded, “everyone loses”. She added that “people are still NDP in their heart,” even if they voted differently this time around. At age 47, Chénier declared she still has time to make it to Parliament and defend “things that are important to people,” pointing to the riding’s aging population which benefits from dental care, diabetes medication and other services. “These are things that transform people’s lives,” she said, vowing to give it a go in the next election. “Third time’s a charm,” she mused optimistically.

Voter turnout and other results

Residents of Sudbury East-Manitoulin-Nickel Belt were eager to have their opinion counted, as 70.11% or 60,266 of the 86,955 registered eligible voters in the riding cast a ballot. Over one third did so during advance polling days, April 19 to 22. Indeed, poll workers at the Sturgeon Falls Recreation Complex on April 19 said there was a line-up on opening day at 9:00 am and the influx continued steadily. This was the case across the riding, as 21,116 ballots were cast in advance of the April 28 election.

Rounding out results for the riding, the People’s Party of Canada candidate Sharilynne St. Louis earned 1,423 votes (2.4%); the Green Party’s Himal Hossain received 453 (0.8%); and the Libertarian Party candidate Justin Dean Newell Leroux got 321 votes (0.5%).